Gold crossed 82 thousand rupees for the first time. On January 31, the price of 10 grams of gold reached Rs 82,165. On 31 December 2024, the price of 24 carat gold was Rs 76,162 per 10 grams. That is, there has been an increase of Rs 6,003 in the last 31 days.
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Why is there so much bounce coming in gold, will tomorrow be more expensive in the budget, when will 1 lakh reach 10 grams; Will know in today’s Excellener …

Question-1: Can gold be more expensive in the budget presented tomorrow, 1 February? answer: Remember last year’s budget. Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman had reduced custom duty on gold from 15% to 6%. After which gold prices immediately fell by about 4 thousand rupees per 10 grams. Due to this, gold import started increasing rapidly in the country.
According to the Economic Times report, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman may increase the custom duty on gold and silver in the 2025 budget. There are 2 big reasons for this…
1. Revenue needs: According to the Controller General of Defense Account (CGDA) report, the government’s fiscal deficit was around Rs 8.5 lakh crore during April to November. That is, the gap of government’s earnings and expenses has increased. The government needs revenue to get out of this deficit. In such a situation, custom duty can be increased on gold, which will increase the income of the government.
2. Control of gold domestic demand: Gold consumption is very high in India. This can increase the Current Account Deficit. That is, we are buying more than the goods we sell to other countries. The government can try to control its consumption by expensive by the government.
Experts believe that if the custom duty in the budget is increased from 6% to 12%, then gold prices can rise by 4 to 5 thousand rupees per 10 grams. However, political analyst Rashid Kidwai is different from this. They say-

Given the Delhi elections, the government will not take the risk of increasing the prices of gold.

Gold consumption in India in 2024 was around 850 MT, which was 747 MT in 2023 a year ago.
Question-2: What are the reasons behind the current increase in gold prices? answer: There are 4 big factors for the current increase in gold prices…
1. Gold became expensive due to economic turmoil due to the arrival of Trump The new US President Donald Trump’s policy has been to increase the tariff on the US First and other countries. Trump also announced a tariff of up to 25% on Mexico and Canada. Along with this, countries like India and China should be included in the list of high -tariff countries. Due to Trump’s decisions, investors started getting nervous about investing in the stock market and currency and started investing in gold. Prices also increased due to increase in gold demand.
2. Gold prices increased due to weakness of rupee According to the World Trade Scanner report, the value of $ 1 in 2021 was Rs 75.41, which has increased to Rs 86.58 by 30 January 2025. When the price of the rupee falls, it has to pay more money for gold imports, this increases prices in the domestic market.
3. Gold demand increased due to increasing investment in gold ETF According to Kedia Advisory director and business expert Ajay Kedia, the stock market has been declining continuously for several months. In such a situation, investors are investing in exchange trade funds i.e. ETF through gold and silver to keep their money safe. Due to this, the demand for gold is increasing rapidly and its prices are also increasing.
4. Gold prices rise due to rising inflation People invest in gold when inflation increases, because gold does a hedge. When inflation increases, the value of money decreases, but the value of gold does not decrease. That is why people trade from gold in inflation.

In 2024, Gold gave a return of about 20% to investors.
Question-3: Can gold be 1 lakh rupees per 10 grams in the next 30 days? answer: Business expert Ajay Kedia says that gold cannot reach 1 lakh rupees per 10 grams in 30 days. Although gold was to fall after a big rally, it has arrived. Gold demand will increase continuously due to reduction in interest rates, rising inflation, falling value of rupee and geopolitical tension. This will also increase investment in gold, but at present it is difficult to cost Rs 1 lakh per 10 grams.
According to Ajay Kedia,

By December 2025, the maximum value of gold can be 85 thousand to 90 thousand rupees per 10 grams. At the same time, if the factors affecting gold prices become stronger, then by 2026, the price of gold can reach 1 lakh.
Question-4: The increase in gold prices is only happening in India or the same trend in the global market? answer: No country decides the price of gold itself. The London Bullion Market Association (LBMA) sets and regulates its rate at international level, 8 thousand kilometers from India. It works closely with the rest of the countries. Gold with 24 carat purity per ounce is fixed in dollars. There is an ounce of 28.3 grams.
LBMA also recorded a steady decline in gold prices after October 30. On 1 January 2025, the price of gold in LBMA was $ 2,644 an ounce, which has increased to $ 2,753 an ounce by 30 January.

Question-5: What is the projection of gold prices this year? answer: According to Ajay Kedia, gold prices will increase continuously in 2025. The price of 24 carat gold in India can reach 85 thousand to 90 thousand rupees per 10 grams by the first half of 2025. At the same time, the price of gold internationally can be $ 3,000 an ounce. There are 3 big reasons for this…
1. Bounce in the purchase of central bank Central banks from all over the world are increasing the purchase of gold. The purchase began after the Russia-Ukraine War. Gold purchases have now increased by about 3 times before 2022, which continues.
2. Gold dependent on Geopolitical Issues Donald Trump promised to stop the Middle East War and Russia-Ukraine war in election rallies. Trump has stopped Israel and Hamas war, but the Russia-Ukraine war did not stop. Along with this, there are reports of war starting in many countries like China-Iman. If the war situation persists worldwide, then in 2025 gold prices will increase rapidly.
3. Federal Reserve Interest Rate Cut The US Federal Reserve Bank has not yet cut the interest rate. If there is a rate cut in the next meetings, then gold prices are almost certain. Increasing interest rate reduces gold purchases, as it benefits less. Currently, the interest rate of Federal Reserve will remain between 4.25% to 4.50%.

On January 29, Jerome Powell, president of the US Federal Reserve in Washington, announced not cutting interest rates after the meeting.
Question-6: What is the trend of silver prices and this year’s projection? answer: On January 30, silver has increased by Rs 1,172 to Rs 91,600 per kg. On January 29, silver was at Rs 90,428. On October 23, 2024, silver made his all -time high, when it reached Rs 99,151 per kg.
In the last 30 days, the price of one kg of silver increased from Rs 85,900 per kg to Rs 91,600 per kg.
According to experts, the ratio of both is composed for gold and silver projection. This ratio usually remains between 30% to 90%. In January 2025, the gold and silver ratio remained at 89.3%.
Experts believe that the ratio will fall down in the coming time, which may boom in silver prices. In 2025, silver can reach Rs 1 lakh 30 thousand per kg in the Indian market.
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Research Cooperation- Gandharva Jha
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